Organic Gardening News

During the past year, I was often asked what I thought would happen to Vancouver’s housing market. My response was simple. There is no Vancouver housing market.

There is a downtown highrise market which differs from the Fraser Valley townhouse market. Similarly, there are rental housing markets and ownership markets catering to first-time buyers, move-up buyers and last-time buyers.

That said, industry associations and experts often generalize about overall sales, housing starts and prices.

At the end of 2024, the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) predicted realtors would enjoy a 13 per cent sales jump in 2025 driven by lower mortgage rates and government policies. Prices were expected to rise modestly.

However, due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs announced in early February, it soon became apparent sales were falling far short of expectations and BCREA revised its outlook.

It is now estimated that 2025 will be the year during which the Lower Mainland experienced the lowest number of home sales this century.

While home sales dropped off significantly here, it was even worse in Toronto. In October, only twenty-five new condominiums were sold in the city. To put this in perspective, it is less than the number of players on the unforgettable Toronto Blue Jays baseball team.

Trump’s tariffs also impacted new housing starts. In January 2025, MLA Canada, one of B.C.’s most successful project marketing firms, predicted 125 condominium projects would launch across the Lower Mainland.

However, by year end, MLA tracked only forty-nine launches, sixty per cent below their forecast and only half the Lower Mainland’s ten-year average. However, some of these were subsequently put on hold or converted to rental.

MLA has not issued a 2026 forecast. However, it expects that the coming year could look a lot like last year. For one thing, investors are almost non-existent due to declining rents and a plethora of government policies that discourage investment.

Furthermore, Rennie Intelligence, estimates there could be 3,400 completed and unsold condominiums on the market by year end, and many more thousands still under construction but not yet sold.

In 2026, thousands of purpose-built rental units are also scheduled for completion which could further bring down rents. While this is good news for renters, it is bad news for developers.

Dozens of other condominium and rental projects have approvals in place but are not proceeding since they are no longer financially viable. This is due to a low level of consumer confidence, excessive municipal fees and high interest and construction costs.

To encourage some of these projects to get underway, Vancouver recently agreed to a myriad of measures that include reductions in development fees and engineering requirements, and deferred payments of fees.

I agree with this approach, since fees charged to condominium developers are usually passed on to new homeowners. It seems misguided to expect those who do not own homes to finance the costs of growth, rather than those who already own homes. Especially since based on 2021 Census data analyzed by SFU’s Andy Yan, nearly 50 per cent of Vancouver homeowners have no mortgage.

While condominium living offers many benefits, people moving out of these mortgage-free single-family houses are often apprehensive about moving into a development that might be run by a strata council whose president may have wanted to be prime minister of Canada but ended up overseeing eighteen townhouses.

For these reasons, I have been urging governments to make it easier to build ‘fee-simple,’ individually owned townhouses as an alternative to condominium townhouses. Although commonplace in Toronto and elsewhere around the world, they are rarely developed here.

The same applies to duplexes. Many people buy a duplex without realizing they are buying into a strata development. Even though it is made up of only two strata lots, the owners are required to abide by the rules and regulations of the Strata Property Act.

There is a ‘fee-simple’ alternative to the duplex — a ‘semi-detached’ house — one of the most common forms of housing in the U.K. and elsewhere around the world. But like fee-simple townhouses, they will not be built here until municipalities make it easier to subdivide properties into smaller lots and establish reduced permit and hook-up fees.

Now that the provincial government is aggressively mandating small-scale, multi-unit housing throughout the province, fee-simple townhouses and semi-detached homes could be attractive alternatives to strata-titled four- and six-unit multiplexes.

Although fee-simple townhouses did not become popular in 2025, another type of housing which I have often promoted in these year-end columns did finally gain popularity. I refer to factory-built modular housing which was recognized by Prime Minister Mark Carney as an effective way to build new homes.

While we will not likely see the 4,000 modular home starts promised by the Prime Minister, I agree with him and federal Housing Minister Gregor Robertson that factory production offers many benefits in terms of construction quality, speed of erection and cost effectiveness.

I would like to conclude with something completely different.

Last year, several reports surfaced linking reduced fertility rates to a lack of suitably designed and affordable family housing. The result was that Canada’s fertility rate hit a new record low of 1.25 children per woman. This did not surprise me.

For years, young couples have told me they were not having children because they could not afford family friendly two- or three-bedroom apartments. While a house with a basement mortgage-helper would be perfect, that was completely out of their price range.

To address this concern, twenty-five years ago during the planning of SFU’s UniverCity community, I proposed designing apartments with a second or third bedroom with its own door to the corridor that could serve as a basement suite equivalent.

Initially, the suite could be rented out as a mortgage-helper. Over time, as the family grew, it would revert to a second or third bedroom.

Fortunately, the City of Burnaby agreed to change its zoning so that a percentage of the apartments could include these lock-off suites.

Former Tyee journalist Monte Paulsen, who sadly died in 2024, called them ‘basement suites-in-the-sky’ and they have subsequently become quite popular. An increasing number of municipalities now allow them.

In 2026, it is my hope that more developers will consider incorporating lock-off suites in their apartment buildings, especially since lenders now recognize the rental income when determining mortgage amounts. This could allow more households to enjoy future holiday seasons with their children.

On this happy note, my best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2026.

Michael Geller FCIP, RPP, MLAI, Ret. Architect AIBC is a Vancouver-based planner and real estate consultant. He also serves on SFU’s adjunct faculty. You can reach him at geller@sfu.ca and find his blog at www.gellersworldtravel.blogspot.com.

Related

• Michael Geller: Expo 2025 in Osaka opens window on promising future
• Michael Geller: B.C. real estate forecast for 2025

Weekly roundup of three properties that recently sold in Metro Vancouver.

18622 64A Ave., Cloverdale

Type: Four-bedroom, three-bathroom detached

Size: 2,395 square feet

B.C. Assessment: $1,474,000

Listed for: $1,299,000

Sold for: $1,255,000

Sold on: Sept. 29

Days on market in this listing: Eight

Listing agent: Shannon Drummond PREC and Pat Drummond at Royal LePage Elite West

Buyers agent: Dave Robles PREC, Stefanie Richardson PREC and Kathryn Iles PREC at ReMax Treeland Realty

The big sell: According to listing agent Shannon Drummond, this four-bedroom Cloverdale home had been owned by the sellers since being built in 1997. It has a cul-de-sac location and an ample driveway that could accommodate several vehicles or an RV or boat. The interior of the house features a family-friendly layout that spans two storeys alongside bright living areas. The kitchen opens to a breakfast nook and family room, while a separate living/dining room for more formal gatherings has a triple aspect and a focal point gas fireplace. In addition, there is a den on the main floor that could be used as a home office, as well as a laundry room, and access to the attached double garage. Upstairs comprises four bedrooms including the primary with its walk-in closet and five-piece ensuite bathroom. Outside, the rear garden is fully fenced and blends mature trees with modern touches such as a dedicated barbecue/fire pit area.

119 — 3031 Williams Rd., Richmond

Type: Four-bedroom, two-bathroom townhouse

Size: 1,460 square feet

B.C. Assessment: $977,300

Listed for: $949,900

Sold for: $920,000

Sold on: October 4

Days on market in this listing: 12

Listing agent: Shafik Ladha PREC and Shamir Charania PREC at ReMax Westcoast

Buyers agent: Fayaz Nanji PREC and Karim Dossa PREC at ReMax Select Properties

The big sell: Edgewater Park is a 137-unit townhouse development that was constructed in the mid 1970s in Richmond’s Seafair district with a variety of recreational facilities on hand for residents including an outdoor swimming pool, playground, basketball courts, and a clubhouse. This particular property has a desirable location offering both a position that backs onto green space with direct access to the West Dyke Trail, as well as ocean views from the second floor. It was updated in 2020 with laminate floors, crown moulding, a stone-surround fireplace, a central island in the white kitchen with Shaker-style cabinets and a tiled backsplash, and a primary bedroom with a private balcony. The newly-renovated backyard has premium composite tiles on the deck, and to the front of the home is a single carport with extra parking available. The unit’s monthly maintenance fee is $450.22, and pets and rentals are permitted by the strata.

514 East 21st St., North Vancouver

Type: Six-bedroom, three-bathroom detached

Size: 2,883 square feet

B.C. Assessment: $1,836,000

Listed for: $2,398,000

Sold for: $2,398,000

Sold on: Sept. 4

Days on market in this listing: Zero

Listing agent: Devon Owen PREC at Royal Pacific Realty

Buyers agent: Jeff Fitzpatrick PREC at Engel & Volkers Vancouver

The big sell: Listing agent Devon Owen reports that she didn’t have a chance to bring this property to market due to the buyer finding out about it via friends and offering the full asking price. What contributed to the appeal? A location in North Vancouver’s Grand Boulevard neighbourhood with myriad amenities lining Lonsdale Avenue nearby, a fully-renovated move-in-ready home with a stylish design, sweeping views, and updates to the roof, plumbing, electrics, kitchens, bathrooms, expansive decks with secure storage, and a legal three-bedroom mortgage-helping suite on the ground floor that is currently run as a short-term rental. The two-level house has vaulted ceilings on the upper floor, a double-sided fireplace, contemporary light fixtures, and a sleek modern kitchen with integrated appliances including a wine fridge.

These transactions were compiled by Nicola Way of BestHomesBC.com.

Realtors — send your recent sales to nicola@besthomesbc.com

Stay up to date on Canada’s best mortgage rates with our guide to the lowest national insured and uninsured mortgage rates, updated daily. Related

• Sold (Bought): Walnut Grove home snapped up with accepted offer in five days
• Sold (Bought): Prime British Properties house offers sweeping views